BFCM Customer Retention Benchmarks: 90-Day Cohort Data from 8,000 First-Time Buyers

11.5% of Black Friday customers repurchase within 90 days. That's 925 out of 8,076 first-time BFCM buyers across multiple DTC brands — and it's 39% lower than the 18.8% general repeat purchase rate across those same brands.

But here's what matters more than the rate: 70% of those BFCM repurchases happened within the first 30 days. The window is compressed. BFCM buyers who come back, come back fast.

We recently published repeat purchase benchmarks across 156K customers. This is the BFCM-specific companion — same brands, narrower cohort, sharper question.

What is BFCM retention? BFCM retention measures the percentage of Black Friday / Cyber Monday first-time buyers who come back for a second purchase within a defined window. Unlike general customer retention, BFCM cohorts are acquired during a promotional, gift-heavy period that produces different buying behavior. This benchmark tracks 90-day repurchase behavior for first-time buyers acquired during BFCM 2025.

That repeat purchase benchmarks post answered: how often do customers come back? This one answers: what happens to customers acquired during the biggest shopping week of the year?

The BFCM Cohort: Who These Buyers Are

The cohort is every first-time buyer across multiple DTC brands during the BFCM window — November 24 through December 2, 2025. "First-time" means no prior order in the preceding 365 days.

8,076 first-time buyers. $1.56M in first-order revenue. Average first order value of $193.60.

The brands span apparel, food & bev, health & wellness, beauty, home decor, home & lifestyle, and general retail. We dropped any brand with fewer than 30 first-time buyers in the BFCM cohort to reduce noise from small samples.

The follow-up window is 90 days. Data was pulled in February 2026, giving a natural 90-day observation period for the full cohort.

BFCM Repurchase Rate Benchmark: 11.5% Within 90 Days

11.5% of BFCM first-time buyers repurchased within 90 days. That's 925 out of 8,076.

The general repeat purchase rate across the same brands — measured over a 365-day window — is 18.8%. The BFCM cohort is 39% lower at 90 days. The time windows are different, but the directional story is clear: Black Friday retention lags behind year-round acquisition.

This shouldn't surprise experienced operators. The intuition has always been that BFCM-acquired customers retain worse. Now there's a number on it.

The 925 repeat buyers generated $164,808 in repurchase revenue. That's roughly 10.5% of the $1.56M in first-order revenue recaptured within 90 days.

Median time to second purchase: 19.2 days. Average: 21.6 days.

Those two numbers are unusually close — a tight cluster. In our general population data, the gap between median and average is much wider because of a long tail of late returners. The BFCM cohort doesn't have that tail. Buyers who come back, come back in a narrow window. The ones who don't are gone.

BFCM Retention Curve: When Repeat Buyers Come Back

The aggregate repurchase rate tells you one thing. The timing tells you what to do about it.

70% of all BFCM repurchases happen within 30 days. Compare that to the general population, where 50.3% of repeat purchases happen within 30 days. The BFCM curve is steeper and more compressed.

28% of BFCM repurchases happen in the first week alone. These are people still in holiday shopping mode — buying gifts for themselves, stacking orders, coming back for items they browsed on Black Friday but didn't pull the trigger on.

Table: BFCM Cohort Retention Curve — 8,076 First-Time Buyers

After 60 days, the curve flattens. Between day 60 and day 90, only 55 additional buyers came back — 6% of total repurchasers. The retention opportunity is front-loaded.

This is the single most actionable data point in the entire post. If you have 30 days to capture a general customer's second purchase, you have roughly two weeks for a BFCM customer. The window is shorter. The urgency is higher.

The implication: Post-BFCM is not the time to go quiet. The first two to four weeks of December are the retention window. Brands that suppress BFCM buyers from holiday campaigns are suppressing their best shot at a second purchase.

BFCM Repurchase Rate by Vertical: 5.4% to 20.6%

The aggregate is 11.5%. The range across individual brands is 5.4% to 20.6%. That's a 4x spread driven by product type, price point, and purchase occasion.

Table: BFCM Repurchase Rates by Vertical — Brands with 30+ First-Time BFCM Buyers

Several patterns stand out.

Consumable and replenishable brands lead. Health & Wellness (Growth) at 20.6%, Food & Bev (Growth) at 17.6%. This mirrors the general population data — products that get used up drive repeat purchases. The BFCM channel doesn't change that fundamental behavior.

High-AOV brands don't retain faster. Home & Lifestyle ($1,108 average first order) at 7.4%. Apparel (Emerging) at $634 average first order and 10.0%. A bigger first purchase doesn't translate to a faster second purchase.

Some brands see very fast returns. Home & Lifestyle has a median of 5.9 days to second purchase. Apparel (Scale) comes in at 12.0 days. Food & Bev (Emerging) at 14.9 days. The BFCM window compresses the return timeline across most verticals.

General Retail (Growth) at 14.0% is notable. It outperforms multiple consumable brands despite not selling a replenishable product. Strong post-purchase execution can close the gap that product category creates.

BFCM Retention vs. General Population: The Gap

The comparison isn't perfectly apples-to-apples. The BFCM cohort is measured over 90 days. The general population repeat rate is measured over 365 days. The BFCM window is also a specific acquisition context — deal-driven, gifting, impulse.

That said, the directional story is clear.

The general population repeat rate across these brands is 18.8% over 365 days. The BFCM cohort hits 11.5% in 90 days. For context, in the general population, 76.4% of repeat purchases happen within 90 days. Even adjusting for the shorter window, the BFCM cohort retains at a lower rate.

The timing difference is sharper. In the general population, 50.3% of repeat purchases happen within 30 days. In the BFCM cohort, that number is 70%. The curve is steeper and more front-loaded.

BFCM customers aren't "worse" customers. They're customers acquired in a different context. They came in during a promotional window. Many were buying gifts. Some were deal-seeking. The purchase occasion was fundamentally different from someone who discovers your brand in March and orders at full price.

That different context requires different post-purchase treatment. The standard post-purchase flow — built for year-round buyers with a 30-90 day return window — doesn't match the compressed timeline of the BFCM cohort.

6 Things to Build Before BFCM 2026

You have nine months. Here's what the data says to prioritize.

1. Build a BFCM-specific post-purchase flow.

Don't use your standard flow. BFCM buyers have a compressed window — 70% of repurchases happen within 30 days, and 28% happen in the first week. Front-load the sequence. More touchpoints in the first two weeks. The standard post-purchase drip that spaces emails over 30-60 days is too slow for this cohort.

2. Don't suppress BFCM buyers from December campaigns.

The data shows BFCM first-time buyers are most likely to buy again in the first two to four weeks. That's December. Holiday gift guides, end-of-year sales, New Year promotions — BFCM first-time buyers should be included in these campaigns, not excluded from them. The instinct to "leave them alone after they just bought" costs you the retention window.

3. Segment BFCM first-timers as their own cohort.

Tag them at purchase. Build a segment. Track their behavior separately from year-round first-time buyers. This data exists in every Klaviyo account — most brands just don't pull it. You can't optimize what you don't measure, and measuring BFCM retention starts with isolating the cohort.

4. Set realistic expectations for BFCM retention.

11.5% at 90 days is the BFCM retention benchmark across 8,076 first-time buyers. If you're above that, you're outperforming. If you're measuring BFCM-acquired customers against your all-year retention rate, the comparison is unfair and will lead you to the wrong conclusions. BFCM customers retain differently. Measure them against BFCM retention benchmarks.

5. Front-load repurchase incentives for BFCM buyers.

If the window is two to four weeks, the bounce-back offer needs to land in that window. A "20% off your next order, expires Dec 31" card in the shipping box hits at exactly the right time. An email-only incentive at day 21 hits at exactly the right time. A winback offer at day 90 is too late for this cohort — the curve has already flattened.

6. Lead with reorders, not cross-sells.

Same finding as our repeat purchase benchmarks — 77% of second purchases across the general population are the same product. BFCM retention follows the same pattern. For BFCM buyers, the reorder offer should lead. A simple "ready for another?" outperforms a product recommendation grid. Save the cross-sell for later in the sequence or for verticals where it matches buyer behavior.

BFCM Retention FAQ

What is a good BFCM repurchase rate?

Across 8,076 first-time BFCM buyers, the average 90-day repurchase rate is 11.5%. The range is 5.4% to 20.6%, driven primarily by product type. Consumable brands see higher BFCM retention (17-21%). Fashion and durable brands see lower retention (5-13%).

Do Black Friday customers come back at a lower rate?

Yes. The BFCM cohort's 90-day repurchase rate of 11.5% is 39% lower than the general repeat purchase rate of 18.8% (measured over 365 days) across the same brands. BFCM-acquired customers are acquired in a deal-driven, gifting-heavy context that produces lower retention rates.

How quickly do BFCM customers make a second purchase?

Fast. 70% of BFCM repurchases happen within 30 days, and 28% happen in the first week. The median time to second purchase is 19.2 days. This is more compressed than the general population, where 50.3% of repeat purchases happen within 30 days.

How should I adjust my post-purchase flow for BFCM buyers?

Front-load it. The standard post-purchase flow is too slow for BFCM buyers. 70% of repurchases happen within 30 days and the curve flattens after 60 days. Build a BFCM-specific sequence with more touchpoints in the first two weeks, include BFCM buyers in December campaigns, and land any repurchase incentive within the first 30 days.

Methodology: How We Measured BFCM Cohort Retention

• Cohort definition: First-time buyers during November 24 — December 2, 2025. "First-time" = no prior order in the preceding 365 days
• Cohort size: 8,076 first-time buyers across multiple DTC brands
• Follow-up window: 90 days (data pulled February 2026)
• Excluded brands: Brands with fewer than 30 first-time buyers in the BFCM cohort were excluded to reduce noise from small samples
• Anonymization: Brands identified by vertical and growth stage only, never by name
• Repurchase rate: Customers who placed 2+ orders / total BFCM cohort size
• Revenue figures: Order revenue, not email-attributed revenue (for the email-attributed perspective, see our email attribution benchmarks)
• General population comparison: From our repeat purchase benchmarks, based on 156,110 customers across a 365-day window. The comparison is directional — different time windows and different acquisition contexts
• This is a single BFCM cohort (2025). Year-over-year comparison will be possible after BFCM 2026