Time to First Purchase Benchmarks: 159K E-Commerce Subscribers

Time to first purchase data from 159,229 e-commerce subscribers tells a story most brands don't expect: 66% have already bought by the time the welcome flow sends its first email. They signed up and purchased in the same session—or they subscribed at checkout after buying.

The welcome flow's real job isn't converting that 66%. It's converting the other 34%—and there, you have about a week.

What is time to first purchase? Time to first purchase measures how quickly an email subscriber places their first order after signing up. Across 159,229 DTC subscribers, 66.4% purchased before or during the same session as subscribing. The remaining 33.6% represent the welcome flow's actual conversion opportunity.

Here's what 159,229 subscribers across multiple DTC brands actually do, what the welcome flow is worth ($1.7M across the portfolio), and how to optimize the subscriber-to-customer window.

We recently published repeat purchase benchmarks across 156K customers, BFCM retention benchmarks, and email attribution benchmarks. This is the subscriber-side companion—what happens before the first purchase, not after.

E-Commerce Time to First Purchase: The Subscribe-to-Purchase Timeline

The conventional wisdom is that welcome flows convert subscribers over days and weeks. The data tells a different story.

Table: E-Commerce Time to First Purchase Benchmarks—159,229 Customers

Three groups emerge from this data. Not two. Three.

Group 1: Already buying (66.4%). These 105,740 subscribers bought before subscribing (9.5%) or within the same session (57%). Combined revenue: $16.4M. These people were in buying mode. The popup captured their email and the discount nudged or sealed the deal, but they were already shopping. The welcome flow gets Klaviyo attribution credit for these purchases, but it didn't cause them.

The 9.5% who bought BEFORE subscribing are checkout signups. They purchased first, subscribed second. The welcome flow's attribution credit is entirely misplaced for this group.

The 57% who bought within the same hour aren't responding to a welcome email. They're responding to the popup. The discount code lands in their inbox, they apply it, and they check out. This is a 10-minute conversion, not a 10-day conversion.

Group 2: The welcome flow window (8.6%). These 13,729 subscribers bought between 1 hour and 30 days after subscribing. Revenue: $4.6M. This is where the welcome sequence actually does its work—the discount reminder, the brand story, the social proof, the urgency. This is the welcome flow's real conversion population.

Group 3: The long tail (25%). These 39,760 subscribers took 30+ days to make their first purchase. Revenue: $7.66M. Whatever eventually converted them, it wasn't the welcome flow. This revenue belongs to the broader email program, not the welcome sequence.

This reframe matters because most brands evaluate their welcome flow based on Klaviyo-attributed revenue—which includes all three groups. The welcome flow looks like a revenue powerhouse because it gets credit for the 66% who were already converting. The actual population it's converting is closer to 9%. Understanding your time to first purchase distribution is the first step toward honest welcome flow benchmarks.

Welcome Flow Revenue Benchmarks: How Much Is the Welcome Flow Actually Worth?

Welcome flow revenue across the portfolio: $1,692,609. That's 30.4% of all flow revenue and 5% of total store revenue ($33.9M).

Welcome flow is the single largest flow by revenue for most brands. In Klaviyo, it looks like the most important automated sequence you run. And $1.7M IS real revenue.

But how much of it did the welcome flow actually cause? Across the portfolio, the "already converting" rate—customers who bought before or during the same session as subscribing—ranges from 43% to 87%. The welcome flow gets Klaviyo credit for these purchases, but the popup and the checkout page did the work.

The flip side: the "welcome opportunity" rate ranges from 13% to 52%. That's the actual population the welcome flow is converting—people who subscribed first and bought later. That's still potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars per brand. But it's a different story than "the welcome flow drives 30% of all flow revenue."

Welcome Flow Conversion Window: When Do Subscribers Make Their First Purchase?

Zoom in on the 33.6% who didn't buy in the same session. When do they convert?

Strip out the 105,740 same-session buyers and look at the remaining 53,489 subscribers. This is the population the welcome flow needs to work on.

Table: Conversion Timing for Non-Same-Session Subscribers—53,489 Subscribers

The welcome flow's active window—1 hour to 30 days—captures about 26% of this group. That's 13,729 subscribers and $4.63M in first-order revenue.

74% of the delayed group takes 30+ days. Well beyond the welcome flow window. Whatever eventually converts these subscribers, it's not the welcome sequence.

The first 24 hours are critical. 4,965 subscribers—9.3% of the delayed group—convert within a day. This is the welcome flow's first email doing its job: the discount reminder, the brand introduction, the "here's why other customers love us" push. That's $1.76M in revenue from one email landing at the right time.

The first week captures 12.4%. Add the 24-48 hour and 2-7 day windows and you've reached 9,609 subscribers. After that, velocity drops. The 7-30 day window adds another 4,120, but the marginal return per day is declining. This retention curve pattern mirrors what we see in post-purchase behavior as well.

After 30 days, the welcome flow's impact fades. The 30+ day group is 74.3% of non-same-session subscribers—$7.66M in revenue from people who subscribed and didn't buy for over a month. Whatever eventually converts them, it's not the welcome flow.

The frame: the welcome flow has a primary window of about 7 days and a secondary window of about 30 days. After that, the welcome flow isn't doing the work. This is why the welcome flow should be compressed and front-loaded. The time to first purchase data says the opportunity is measured in hours and days, not weeks.

How Time to First Purchase Affects Customer Lifetime Value

First purchase speed feeds the entire customer lifecycle.

From our repeat purchase benchmarks: 50.3% of second purchases happen within 30 days. 77% are the same product. The second-purchase clock starts ticking the moment someone places their first order.

A subscriber who buys in the same session enters the post-purchase window immediately. A subscriber who takes 30 days to make their first purchase has already burned through the window where second-purchase probability is highest. By the time they're ready for a second order, they're competing with every other brand for attention.

The lifecycle compresses: subscribe, buy same session (57%), second purchase within 30 days (50.3%), reorder the same product (77%). Each stage has a narrow window. Speed compounds. Time to first purchase isn't just a welcome flow metric—it's a customer lifetime value predictor. You can model this impact directly with our free LTV calculator.

This is also why the popup discount isn't "giving away margin." It's accelerating entry into the highest-value part of the customer lifecycle. A subscriber who converts immediately at 10% off generates more lifetime value than a subscriber who converts at full price 45 days later—because the second-purchase window has already started, and 50% of those second purchases happen within 30 days of the first.

The cost of the discount is real. The cost of a delayed first purchase is larger.

How to Reduce Time to First Purchase: 6 Welcome Flow Optimizations

Six things the data says to do. Most brands aren't doing any of them.

1. Treat the popup as a conversion tool, not a list-building tool.

The popup's job isn't to collect emails. It's to create same-session buyers. 57% of subscribers buy within the same hour. The discount, the copy, the timing—all should be optimized for immediate conversion, not just signup rate. A popup with a 5% signup rate and 80% same-session conversion beats a popup with an 8% signup rate and 50% same-session conversion. Track same-session conversion rate alongside popup signup rate. Most brands only measure the first.

2. Split your welcome flow into two paths.

Path A: subscriber who already bought (66% of subscribers). They don't need the "here's who we are" nurture sequence. They need post-purchase content—product tips, social proof, and a reorder nudge. Sending them a "complete your purchase" email after they already purchased is a bad experience.

Path B: subscriber who didn't buy. They need the traditional welcome sequence with urgency—the discount expires, the product is popular, other customers love it. This is the 34% where the welcome flow does its real work. Segmenting by purchase behavior rather than engagement metrics is what makes this split effective.

Most welcome flows treat everyone the same. The data says they shouldn't.

3. Front-load the welcome flow.

9.3% of delayed converters buy within the first 24 hours. Another 3.1% within 48 hours. The first two to three emails need to land fast. Days 0, 1, 3, 5, 7—not days 0, 3, 7, 10, 14. By the time a welcome flow sends its third email on day 7, you've already lost the subscribers who were going to convert in the first 48 hours without a reminder.

4. Add urgency to the discount.

If the popup offers 10% off with no expiration, there's no reason to buy today. A 48-72 hour expiration on the welcome discount aligns with the data—the conversion window is hours to days, not weeks. The urgency is real because the opportunity is real. After 7 days, the probability of conversion drops sharply.

5. Track time-to-first-purchase as a KPI.

Most brands track popup signup rate and welcome flow revenue. Almost none track how fast subscribers convert. If your same-session conversion rate is declining, that's a leading indicator of problems downstream—fewer immediate buyers means fewer second purchases 30 days later, which means lower lifetime value. Time to first purchase is an early warning metric.

6. Don't confuse welcome flow attribution with welcome flow impact.

Klaviyo attributes revenue to the welcome flow for anyone who subscribes and buys—even if they bought in the same session before the first email sent. The "already converting" rate across our portfolio ranges from 43% to 87%. Your welcome flow's true incremental value is the gap between those numbers and 100%. Track both: the Klaviyo-attributed number (useful for reporting) and the true opportunity number (useful for optimization).

Welcome Flow Benchmarks FAQ

How fast do email subscribers convert to customers?

57% of e-commerce subscribers buy within the same hour as signing up. Another 9.5% have already purchased before subscribing (checkout signups). In total, 66.4% of subscribers across 159,229 customers convert before or during the same session as subscribing. Only 33.6% buy after the welcome flow has a chance to influence them.

How much revenue should a welcome flow generate?

Across our portfolio, the welcome flow generates $1.7M in Klaviyo-attributed revenue—30.4% of all flow revenue and 5% of total store revenue. However, 43-87% of that attributed revenue comes from customers who were already converting (bought before or during the same session). The welcome flow's true incremental revenue comes from the 13-52% of subscribers who buy 1+ hours after subscribing.

What is a good welcome flow conversion rate?

The "already converting" rate ranges from 43% to 87% across our portfolio. The "welcome opportunity" rate—subscribers who buy 1+ hours after subscribing—ranges from 12.7% to 52.4%. Brands with higher welcome opportunity rates have the most room for welcome flow optimization. Brands with very high already-converting rates (80%+) should focus on popup optimization and post-purchase flows instead.

How long should a welcome flow be?

The data says the welcome flow's primary conversion window is 7 days, with a secondary window extending to 30 days. 12.4% of non-same-session subscribers convert within a week. After 30 days, 74.3% of remaining non-buyers haven't purchased yet and likely won't convert through the welcome sequence alone. Front-load the flow with more emails in the first week. A welcome flow that waits until day 14 for its third email is too slow for the window the data shows.

Is the welcome flow still worth it if most subscribers already bought?

Yes. The welcome flow is still worth $1.7M across our portfolio, even if 66% of subscribers were already converting. The welcome flow serves two purposes: it captures revenue from the 34% who weren't buying immediately (potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars per brand), and it starts the brand relationship for all subscribers—including the 66% who already bought. For those buyers, the welcome flow becomes a post-purchase touchpoint that feeds into the repeat purchase cycle.

Methodology: How We Measured Time to First Purchase

• Data window: 12-month lookback, 159,229 customers across multiple DTC brands spanning 10+ verticals
• "Already converting" = bought before subscribing or within 1 hour of subscribing (same session)
• "Welcome flow opportunity" = bought 1+ hours after subscribing
• Welcome flow revenue is Klaviyo-attributed (last-touch, default attribution window)
• Subscribe-to-purchase timing is measured from Klaviyo profile creation to first order
• Brands are identified by vertical and tier only, never by name
• Total store revenue: $33.9M. Total flow revenue: $5.6M. Welcome flow revenue: $1.7M
• Brands with negligible welcome flow revenue ($0 or no active welcome flow) were included in the timing analysis but excluded from the revenue-by-vertical table
• This report will be updated as we accumulate more data across additional brands and longer time windows