Stop Guessing What Customers Want Next — Use Their Actual Purchase Paths

Most post-purchase email flows are built on assumptions.

"They bought a shirt, so let's recommend pants." "They bought coffee, so let's push the subscription." "They bought once, so let's send them everything and see what sticks."

This is lazy and it doesn't work very well.

There's a better way: build your flows based on what customers actually buy, in what order, at what frequency. The data already exists. Most brands just never look at it (to be fair, it's pretty hard to get).

The Problem with Guessing

Here's what most post-purchase flows look like:

1. Customer buys something
2. They get a generic "thanks for your order" email
3. A few days later, they get product recommendations based on... vibes? Best sellers? MAYBE you're using a third party system to generate algorithmically optimized products (unlikely...)
4. Maybe they buy again, probably they don't

The recommendations aren't based on what people who bought that specific product actually do next. They're based on general popularity or category matching.

Which is, honestly, a missed opportunity.

What Purchase Path Data Actually Shows

We built a system that visualizes purchase paths using Sankey charts. It shows:

• What products customers buy first
• What they bought second
• The exact percentage at each split

It looks at every product in first orders. Gives it a point. Then, does the same for second orders. This gives us the most accurate idea of what gets bought first & second—regardless of whether or not it's buried in multiple orders.

Here's what that looks like in practice:

Say you sell skincare. Your Sankey chart might show:

• 40% of people who buy the Cleanser buy the Moisturizer next
• 25% buy the Serum next
• 20% buy a refill of the Cleanser
• 15% buy something random

Now we're not guessing, we're using actual customer behavior. And it should change how you build your flows.

Building Flows from Real Data

Once you know the actual purchase paths, you can build flows that match them. Use our Flow Builder to deploy these product-specific sequences quickly.

Example: The Cleanser → Moisturizer Flow

If 40% of Cleanser buyers go on to buy the Moisturizer, that's your post-purchase flow for Cleanser buyers:

• Day 3: "How's the Cleanser working for you?"
• Day 7: "Most people pair it with our Moisturizer—here's why"
• Day 14: "Still thinking about it? Here's 10% off the Moisturizer"

No more guessing. You're following the path that 40% of similar customers already took.

Example: The Refill Flow

20% buy a refill. That tells you something about timing. Look at the average days between Cleanser purchases—one of the metrics Klaviyo doesn't calculate for you. If it's 45 days:

• Day 35: "Running low on Cleanser?"
• Day 42: "Don't run out—reorder now"
• Day 50: "We saved your Cleanser—ready when you are"

Again, not guessing, using real repurchase timing. This is how you really leverage data!

Why This Beats Algorithmic Recommendations

Most recommendation engines optimize for click-through or general popularity. They don't know anything about the actual purchase journey for your specific products.

Purchase path data tells you:

1. What people actually buy next—not what's popular overall, but what buyers of THIS product buy next
2. The strength of the signal—50% conversion to Product B is different from 10%
3. The timing—how many days between purchases

This lets you build flows that feel prescient instead of generic.

That's a different email than "Check out our best sellers."

How to Get This Data

The data already exists in your Shopify (or whatever platform you use). You need to:

1. Export order data with customer ID, product purchased, and order date
2. Sequence orders by customer—first order, second order, third order
3. Map the transitions—Product A → Product B, with counts
4. Visualize it—Sankey chart or simple table showing the percentages

You can do this manually in a spreadsheet, or build something more automated. We built it into our internal portal so we can see it for every client. For segment creation, our Audience Builder can help you create product-specific customer segments.

The key insight: this isn't complicated analysis. It's just looking at what actually happens instead of assuming.

The Payoff

When your post-purchase flows match actual purchase paths:

• Higher conversion—you're recommending what people actually want
• Better timing—you're hitting them when they're ready to buy again
• Less unsubscribes—relevant emails don't feel like spam

Stop guessing. Look at the data. Build flows that follow the paths your customers already take.

Want help mapping your purchase paths? Reach out. See how we helped Bussin Snacks achieve 49% owned revenue with data-driven personalized Klaviyo flows.